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Subject Topic: From Takeover saga to a Mega merger Post ReplyPost New Topic
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arifin34
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Posted: 05 January 2007 at 12:09am | IP Logged Quote arifin34

Hi there!

The first 2 days of trading in 2007 saw plantation stocks still climbing strongly. I guess the Synergy Drive's M&A augurs well for the sector as a whole in the true sense of the word.

Its kind of nice to still having a few TH Plantations stocks... courtesy for being a long time depositor of LUTH and going for the IPO when many seems to shun it then! I believe its among the cheapest in its league and hence a good long term investment.



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ARIFIN ABDUL LATIF
State Director of Agriculture, Ipoh | Senior Consultant, ArifinLatif Consulting.
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arifin34
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Posted: 23 December 2006 at 10:36am | IP Logged Quote arifin34

Dear All,

Now that the top 3 (and their related companies) have agreed to accept Synergy Drive's proposal.... after having to fork out some significant sum of monies for the independent advisers to study the proposal (.... but it was in fact a foregone conclusion that they'll recommend in favour of Synegry Drive!).

And today Dr Mark Mobius was quoted as saying that the merger "...should be good for the industry". What's next? I think now its a matter of convenience that the PNB board will have to accept too. What lies ahead for the minority shareholders? What's the Minority Shareholders Watchdog doing with this? Comments please.

Hopefully a truly big plantation giant will emerge strongly... albeit some competition is beginning to take shape as well (e.g. with Robert Quok's forays into PPB, .... but shouldn't something be brewing in the IOI Corp's stable?). And don't just rely purely on the biodiesel argument alone as 'the only value-added component'.

To me the non-plantation assets are more interesting, more lucrative plays.... just watch out! This aspect needs to be dealt with more openly - please don't keep the minorities in the dark! TQ.



Edited by arifin34 on 23 December 2006 at 10:38am


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ARIFIN ABDUL LATIF
State Director of Agriculture, Ipoh | Senior Consultant, ArifinLatif Consulting.
Freelance Consultant on Forecasting Econs/Stock Market Trends; ICT; PVP 0166094170
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flick068
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Posted: 10 December 2006 at 9:49am | IP Logged Quote flick068
hmmm... nik, after arifin's post on 'mother of all mergers' i might need to revise my take on the word "merger", although I can't think of anything....
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arifin34
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Posted: 28 November 2006 at 3:03pm | IP Logged Quote arifin34

The EDGE Malaysia this week carried a cover story entitled "The mother of all MERGERS"... sounds like Saddam's "The mother of all Battles".... and today's StarBiz has this for its headline: "CIMB proposes RM31bil merger"....

It's going to be a start of renewed interest in M&A stories... as we have had a decade or so back. So what's next? Is this a prelude to bigger waves forming? If so, then KLCI is ripe for a gradual crawl upwards, akin to the 1993/94 Superbull run? Wishful thinking? I need some time to analyse that possibility.... perhaps I'll put my thoughts on paper in The Right Timing Special column in The EDGE's year-end issue. Till then, all the best folks.



Edited by arifin34 on 28 November 2006 at 3:04pm


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ARIFIN ABDUL LATIF
State Director of Agriculture, Ipoh | Senior Consultant, ArifinLatif Consulting.
Freelance Consultant on Forecasting Econs/Stock Market Trends; ICT; PVP 0166094170
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nikzafri
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Posted: 26 November 2006 at 7:54pm | IP Logged Quote nikzafri

Flick..I can't stop laughing!!


flick068 wrote:
I'll give it a shot...but I can be very literal and it's not so much what i feel, but what image i conjure up - yeah i know it's not what you asked!

-Privatization mmm..closed up
-Corporatization.. big fat cats
-Business Process Reengineering.. what a joke
-Smart Partnership.. wassat?
-Joint-Venture.. perhaps can learn from each other
-Associates.. could be fake, it's just one-man show but what to sound big
-Takeovers or Hostile Takeovers.. men in black with guns
-Mergers.. how sweet
-Acquisitions.. snatching
-Bailing Out.. men in stripes creeping out of jail
-Corporate Debt Restructuring.. oo in trouble eh
-Downsizing.. oo more trouble
-Freezer.. people in cold storage
-Transfers.. running away
-Redesignation.. reworking something which isn't necessarily broke
-VSS.. (i really don't know what this is) but reminds me of Vanguard?!?
-Vendor Development Program.. whatever
-Franchise.. small fat cats





Edited by brigitteforum on 26 November 2006 at 9:44pm
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flick068
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Posted: 26 November 2006 at 7:08pm | IP Logged Quote flick068
I'll give it a shot...but I can be very literal and it's not so much what i feel, but what image i conjure up - yeah i know it's not what you asked!

-Privatization mmm..closed up
-Corporatization.. big fat cats
-Business Process Reengineering.. what a joke
-Smart Partnership.. wassat?
-Joint-Venture.. perhaps can learn from each other
-Associates.. could be fake, it's just one-man show but what to sound big
-Takeovers or Hostile Takeovers.. men in black with guns
-Mergers.. how sweet
-Acquisitions.. snatching
-Bailing Out.. men in stripes creeping out of jail
-Corporate Debt Restructuring.. oo in trouble eh
-Downsizing.. oo more trouble
-Freezer.. people in cold storage
-Transfers.. running away
-Redesignation.. reworking something which isn't necessarily broke
-VSS.. (i really don't know what this is) but reminds me of Vanguard?!?
-Vendor Development Program.. whatever
-Franchise.. small fat cats



Edited by brigitteforum on 26 November 2006 at 9:44pm
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nikzafri
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Posted: 26 November 2006 at 6:23pm | IP Logged Quote nikzafri

Mind Probe

This is my very own psychometric test. There will be no results shown and nobody is right or wrong. There's nothing for me to gain. I just want you to describe your feeling not something intellectual or definitions or what you think of the words...just simple feeling..e.g. for the words Hostile Takeover - I feel nasty!! (something like that)

What's the first thought that crosses your mind or describe your feeling when you read the following words (don't take too long to think...anything will do)?

-Privatization
-Corporatization
-Business Process Reengineering
-Smart Partnership
-Joint-Venture
-Associates
-Takeovers or Hostile Takeovers
-Mergers
-Acquisitions
-Bailing Out
-Corporate Debt Restructuring
-Downsizing
-Freezer
-Transfers
-Redesignation
-VSS
-Vendor Development Program
-Franchise



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brigitteforum
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Posted: 25 November 2006 at 6:10am | IP Logged Quote brigitteforum
I worry about anything (company, bank, entity) that is too big....

What happens to any industry/market when there's one giant and all the little guys have to fight with him to gain some market share?

Also, if they merge, will they be selling off any properties? I'd be worried if I lived in any condo developed by either one of the three companies.


Brigitte
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Mybear584
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Posted: 25 November 2006 at 1:09am | IP Logged Quote Mybear584
Sometimes, bigger does not mean better.
Its all about management.
Again, I think we going about the wrong way of solving the problem of our capital markets.
The Govt thinks that our stock market is being overlook because we do not have big quality companies. I think the emphasis should be QUALITY.
BIG helps but I think it boils down to quality.
Because quality is not easy to achieve whilst BIG can easily be achieved overnight, as usual, we take the short cut.
Sigh...
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arifin34
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Posted: 24 November 2006 at 10:39am | IP Logged Quote arifin34

Dear Fellow Global Malaysians....

Remember the swift takeover of Guthrie on the London Stock Exchange in 1981? The takeover allowed us the return of ownership of some 200,000 acres (800 km˛) of agricultural land back to Malaysians. It caught my imagination then, which soon followed with me doing a Masters thesis at ANU back in 1983-85. Its been 25 years (yes, they could have celebrated a silver jubilee by now!) and now, as Kumpulan Guthrie (majority stake owned by PNB) is poised to play a pivotal role in a mega merger between plantation companies under the PNB stable of companies.

"The merger of Sime Darby Bhd, Kumpulan Guthrie Bhd and Golden Hope Plantations Bhd will create one of the largest palm oil companies in the world, with a total planted area of close to 525,000ha," says one commentary. In fact they are now out there debating on the key benefits and risk of the proposed merger..... who's right or wrong is another matter.

 

Question: What do you all think? (Never mind what the experts/journalists/ analysts are saying) -- your ideas, fellow 'smaller' Malaysians, are worth noting.

 

My first thoughts were:   "Synergistic benefits should outweigh risk factors. The whole issue of economies of scale alone and being on the global radar in global equities markets are not strong enough. If all these can (should) be translated into optimal/greater efficiencies in operations at the plantation level, then its a worthwhile mega play (Just use IOI Corp as a benchmark in efficiency - we don't have to look elsewhere!)."

Secondly:  There goes the CEOs.... or are they going to be retained them? Too many 'Sinbads' can sink ships in 1,001 ways.....

Thirdly:  To the SC/Bursa, Please take good care for the minority shareholders of the companies concerned. The small players should be rewarded in the best possible way (Don't let the experience of the IPO for TH Plantations be repeated! Even though the Govt wants the ordinary people, LUTH depositors, to benefit as well.... yet the main bulk of them in smaller towns missed the opportunity!!!! And its trading around at RM2.50 now, compared with the IPO price of RM1.25 then).

 

TQ.



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ARIFIN ABDUL LATIF
State Director of Agriculture, Ipoh | Senior Consultant, ArifinLatif Consulting.
Freelance Consultant on Forecasting Econs/Stock Market Trends; ICT; PVP 0166094170
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